The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) has released the Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook: September – November 2020.
The seasonal outlook is predicting that the 2020/21 fire season will be driven by different climate drivers than the previous two fire seasons.
Specifically, in Victoria, the BNHCRC is indicating that the possible influence of La Niña is expected to reduce the risk of prolonged fire activity across most of Victoria. The assessment is that there is normal fire potential for the outlook period across Victoria.
The Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook is produced quarterly for fire authorities to make strategic decisions such as resource planning and prescribed fire management to reduce the negative impacts of bushfire.
The full seasonal outlook can be downloaded at the bottom of the page or from the BNHCRC website.
From the BNHCRC website, published 31 August 2020:
The 2020/21 fire season will be driven by vastly different climate drivers than the previous two fire seasons. With a La Niña ALERT now active, large areas of eastern and northern Australia are expecting wetter than average conditions through spring. Despite the wetter climate signals, parts of Queensland face above normal fire potential in the south east and central coast, extending to the north.
While these wetter conditions in eastern Australia will help in the short-term, they may lead to an increase in the risk of fast running fires in grasslands and cropping areas over summer. These conditions will be monitored closely over the coming months.
In contrast to the wetter conditions for the east, dry conditions persist in Western Australia, with above normal fire potential continuing to be expected in parts of the north.
Fire is a regular occurrence across Australia, and it is important to remember that areas designated as normal fire potential will still see fires. Normal bushfire risk does not mean there is no risk.
The Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook is produced quarterly to be used by fire authorities to make strategic decisions such as resource planning and prescribed fire management to reduce the negative impacts of bushfire.
